Francis Tan: A stellar real estate career comes full circle

TL;DR: Francis Tan, one of Singapore's most decorated real estate veterans, reflects on a career spanning over three decades — from HDB transactions to luxury landed deals — offering a rare insider perspective on how Singapore's property market has evolved and where opportunities still lie for investors.

Francis Tan's Real Estate Career: From HDB Roots to Luxury Landed Deals

Over a career stretching more than 30 years, Francis Tan has closed deals across virtually every segment of Singapore's property market — from public housing resale flats transacting at under S$100,000 in the early 1990s to luxury landed homes commanding prices north of S$10 million today. Tan, who is currently a senior associate director at one of Singapore's leading property agencies, began his career at a time when the HDB resale market was the dominant force in residential transactions. His trajectory mirrors the broader transformation of Singapore real estate from a largely government-driven housing system to one of Asia-Pacific's most sophisticated and internationally sought-after investment markets.

Tan's early years were defined by volume — handling dozens of HDB transactions monthly, navigating the complexities of the Cash Over Valuation (COV) system that once governed resale flat pricing. When COV was abolished in 2014, it marked a structural turning point that Tan witnessed firsthand, reshaping how buyers and sellers approached price negotiations. That policy shift, he notes, was one of the most consequential regulatory changes of his career, forcing agents and buyers alike to rely more heavily on transaction data and comparable sales rather than sentiment-driven premiums.

• Singapore HDB resale median price (2024): S$575,000
• Average price PSF (OCR private condo, Q1 2025): S$1,820
• Landed home price growth (2020–2024): +38.4%
• Singapore private residential price index change (2023–2024): +3.9%

Market Context: Three Decades of Price Cycles and Policy Shifts

Tan's career has spanned multiple property cycles — the post-Asian Financial Crisis trough of 1998, the SARS-induced correction of 2003, the global financial crisis dip of 2008 to 2009, and the sustained cooling measures era that began in 2013 and intensified through 2023. Each cycle, he observes, has been followed by a recovery that ultimately pushed prices to new highs, reinforcing Singapore's reputation as a resilient store of value for property investors. The private residential price index has risen by nearly 40 percent over the past decade, even accounting for multiple rounds of Additional Buyer's Stamp Duty (ABSD) increases.

The luxury landed segment, where Tan has concentrated much of his recent work, has been particularly instructive. Good Class Bungalows (GCBs) in prime districts have seen transacted prices climb from an average of around S$15 million a decade ago to well above S$30 million for premium plots today. This appreciation reflects both constrained supply — GCB land is a protected asset class limited to Singapore citizens — and sustained demand from ultra-high-net-worth buyers who view landed property as a hedge against both inflation and currency risk.

What This Means for Buyers and Investors in Singapore Property

For investors assessing Singapore residential property in 2025, Tan's career arc offers a data-grounded argument for long-term holding. The recurring pattern across his three decades is clear: short-term corrections triggered by external shocks or policy tightening have consistently given way to medium-term recoveries, particularly in supply-constrained segments such as landed homes and freehold condominiums in core central regions. Buyers who entered during the 2022 to 2023 cooling measure period, when sentiment was cautious, are already seeing paper gains as the market stabilises at elevated levels.

The actionable implication for investors is to focus on segments with structural supply constraints — GCBs, freehold landed in Districts 10 and 11, and boutique freehold condominiums in the CCR. Rental yields in these segments typically range between 2.5 and 3.5 percent, which, while modest by regional standards, are underpinned by Singapore's political stability, rule of law, and transparent transaction data — factors that Tan identifies as the enduring foundation of the market's long-term investment case. As ABSD rates for foreigners remain at 60 percent, domestic and permanent resident buyers retain a structural pricing advantage that is unlikely to erode in the near term.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is Cash Over Valuation (COV) and why was it abolished in Singapore?

Cash Over Valuation was the premium buyers paid above the HDB-assessed valuation of a resale flat. It was abolished in March 2014 when HDB changed its valuation process so that valuations were only conducted after a resale application was submitted, removing the benchmark that sellers used to justify COV premiums. The change was intended to reduce speculative pricing in the HDB resale market.

How have Singapore landed home prices changed over the past decade?

Singapore landed residential prices have risen approximately 38 to 40 percent over the past decade, with Good Class Bungalows experiencing even sharper appreciation. Average GCB transacted prices have more than doubled since the early 2010s, driven by constrained supply — GCB areas are zoned and protected — and strong demand from Singapore citizens with high net worth.

What is the current price PSF for private condominiums in Singapore's Outside Central Region?

As of Q1 2025, the median price PSF for private non-landed residential properties in Singapore's Outside Central Region (OCR) is approximately S$1,820, reflecting sustained demand from HDB upgraders and first-time private home buyers despite elevated interest rates and ABSD obligations.

Why do foreign investors face a 60 percent ABSD in Singapore?

Singapore raised the Additional Buyer's Stamp Duty for foreign buyers to 60 percent in April 2023 as part of a package of cooling measures aimed at prioritising housing access for citizens and permanent residents, and at moderating speculative foreign capital inflows into the residential property market. The measure has significantly reduced foreign transaction volumes in the CCR.